For companies and investors assessing Venezuela’s oil sector, a central question is which conditions for operating depend on the current political bargain, and which could endure a change in the balance of power.
On 2 October 2026, I joined En primera plana on France 24 and RFI to discuss the agreement. I argued that distributing access to resources among external actors can give some of them an economic interest in preserving the political arrangements that secure that access.
For an investment decision, this requires examining which actors control electricity supply and access to foreign currency, and who can maintain or disrupt security on the ground. A negotiated calm may permit operations while leaving them dependent on the cooperation of actors whose interests can shift.
A government’s authorisation must therefore be assessed alongside its capacity to maintain the conditions needed to execute a project. If political support for a project weakens or a local security arrangement breaks down, can operations continue? The answer informs the choice of counterparties, the pace of capital commitments and the safeguards on which an investor can reasonably rely.
Watch the full discussion in Spanish below.
