On 23 June 2025, Iranian and Israeli strikes hit Qatari soil near the Al Udeid airbase, home to the largest US military presence in the Middle East. This was not just another regional escalation: it was a reminder that a local shock can instantly reshape energy and financial equations thousands of miles away.
Doha: from the Gulf to Europe
Qatar, a key LNG supplier to Europe, saw its sovereignty tested by the militarisation of its territory. The ripple effect went far beyond the Gulf: concerns about LNG flows triggered volatility across European markets. Energy companies are now forced to treat military risks as a direct variable in supply continuity.
Buenos Aires: energy sovereignty under pressure
On the other side of the globe, Argentina experienced a political jolt. The defeat of the presidential party in the Buenos Aires provincial elections (33.7% against 47% for Peronism) cast doubt on the stability of Vaca Muerta as a future LNG supplier to Europe. Markets reacted immediately: the peso fell, Argentine bonds lost 9%, and international investors grew increasingly uneasy. The link is clear: Argentina’s ability to transform potential into export contracts depends as much on political stability as on gas reserves.
Paris: transactional sovereignty
France illustrates another dimension of vulnerability. With debt surpassing 116% of GDP, sovereignty is no longer purely territorial but transactional: conditioned by financial markets’ confidence. This macroeconomic fragility constrains France’s international posture. For businesses, it means that country risk assessments can no longer rely solely on fiscal indicators. Governance and social cohesion have become strategic determinants.
From multilateral order to pluriverse
These three scenes — Doha, Buenos Aires, Paris — show that we no longer live in a stabilised multilateral system but in a pluriverse, where multiple centres of power interact without clear hierarchy. Every local shock — military, political, or financial — becomes a global factor, reshaping supply chains and investment strategies in real time.
Three implications for companies
- Scenario planning for uncertainty: companies must build multipolar scenarios that combine security, political, and financial risks.
- Expanding due diligence: energy project assessments should include host-country political resilience and the macro-financial stability of target markets.
- Anticipating fragmentation: the shift toward friend-shoring and regionalised flows requires adapting supply and financing strategies to a fragmented world.
In 2025, uncertainty is not background noise: it is the structuring factor of the 21st century. Boards that treat it as a marginal risk will lose strategic proactivity. Those who turn it into a driver for decision-making will gain a durable competitive advantage.
