The energy transition has placed Africa at the heart of strategic debates. Cobalt, lithium, manganese, and rare earths are no longer simple commodities; they are the backbone of batteries, power grids, and decarbonisation technologies. According to the International Energy Agency, global demand for critical minerals could triple by 2040, redefining geopolitical balances in the process.
Resource sovereignty: between opportunity and risk
From Zambia to the Democratic Republic of Congo, new regulatory frameworks require local transformation and national content obligations. The goal is clear: to capture greater added value within the continent. This movement reflects a new economic pan-Africanism, affirming that political independence is incomplete without control of resources. Yet the pursuit of sovereignty carries risks. If it mirrors Latin America’s rentier models, it could reproduce cycles of instability and undermine investor confidence.
Ghana and Chad: contrasting trajectories
Ghana represents a more institutionalised approach: energy diversification, relative stability, and willingness to align with international standards. Chad, by contrast, remains fragile: extreme dependence on oil revenues, weak institutional resilience, and exposure to security tensions. These two trajectories highlight that resource sovereignty is not a uniform slogan but a context-specific equation combining governance, security, and regional integration.
Friend-shoring and critical chains: Africa under pressure
The fragmentation of global trade and the rise of friend-shoring are reshaping flows. G7 countries are seeking to secure “reliable” supply chains, intensifying competition to attract or lock in African resources. In this context, Africa is not merely a supplier; it has become a strategic arbitration ground, where every mining contract sits at the intersection of diplomacy, law, and security.
Three implications for companies
- Integrate sovereignty as a core variable: each project must assess local reforms and their fiscal, social, and political implications.
- Adapt partnership models: beyond conventional joint ventures, explore hybrid arrangements that combine local industrialisation with supply security.
- Anticipate fragmentation: map regional interdependencies and model the potential impacts of trade conflicts or diplomatic ruptures.
By 2025, Africa is no longer simply providing raw materials. It is redefining access conditions, imposing its own priorities, and emerging as the center of gravity of global critical supply chains. For companies, the challenge is not whether they can access resources, but whether they can do so under frameworks that are sustainable, transparent, and consistent with international commitments.
